Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

2024-10-31 · 36 min · episode 85 · 12 entities

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→ discusses Technology company

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→ discusses Business concept

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→ hosted by Conviction company

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Entities found in this episode

concepts 7

mentioned Science concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Science
mentioned Business concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Business
mentioned Entrepreneurship concept

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Feed category: Entrepreneurship
mentioned America’s First Regulated Prediction Market concept

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evidence rules-v4
Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market
discusses Science concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Science
discusses Business concept

0.40

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Business
discusses Entrepreneurship concept

0.40

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Entrepreneurship

companys 5

mentioned Conviction company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Conviction
mentioned Kalshi company

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CEO of Kalshi
mentioned Technology company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Technology
discusses Technology company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Technology
hosted by Conviction company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Conviction

Episode description as stored

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @MansourTarek Show Notes: 0:00 Introduction 1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi 3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC 5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting 7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections 8:12 Gambling vs. trading 9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets 12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking 17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity 19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses 22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets 24:59 Conditional markets 26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate 31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform