World Model · podcast knowledge graph

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

2025-03-14 · 41 min · 12 entities

episode page audio

Asserted relationships

  • → discusses Business concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Business
  • → discusses News concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: News
  • → discusses Investing concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Investing
  • → discusses News Commentary concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: News Commentary
  • → hosted by Bloomberg company
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Bloomberg
  • → discusses Business News concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Business News

Entities found in this episode

concepts 9

  • mentioned Business concept
    0.50
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Business
  • mentioned Investing concept
    0.50
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Investing
  • mentioned News Commentary concept
    0.50
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: News Commentary
  • mentioned Business News concept
    0.50
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Business News
  • discusses Business concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Business
  • discusses News concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: News
  • discusses Investing concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Investing
  • discusses News Commentary concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: News Commentary
  • discusses Business News concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Business News

companys 2

  • mentioned Bloomberg company
    0.70
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Bloomberg
  • hosted by Bloomberg company
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Bloomberg

books 1

Episode description as stored
Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack. Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.