World Model · podcast knowledge graph

687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

2026-09-18 · 49 min · episode 687 · 7 entities

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Asserted relationships

  • → discusses Society & Culture concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Society & Culture
  • → hosted by Freakonomics Radio + Stitcher company
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Freakonomics Radio + Stitcher
  • → discusses Documentary concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Documentary

Entities found in this episode

concepts 5

  • mentioned Society & Culture concept
    0.50
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Society & Culture
  • mentioned Documentary concept
    0.50
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Documentary
  • mentioned or Just Another Casino concept
    0.42
    evidence rules-v4
    687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?
  • discusses Society & Culture concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Society & Culture
  • discusses Documentary concept
    0.40
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Documentary

companys 2

Episode description as stored
The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series .) SOURCES: Robin Hanson , professor of economics at George Mason University. Nicole Kagan , head of research at Kalshi. Tarek Mansour , co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. RESOURCE: " Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets ," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026). " Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation ," ( Kalshi Research , 2026). " Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs ," by Robin Hanson (2000). " The Use of Knowledge in Society ," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945). EXTRAS: " The Economics of Sports Gambling ," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). " How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future ," by Freakonomics Radio (2016). " The Folly of Prediction ," by Freakonomics Radio (2011). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.