AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen

2026-09-08 · 90 min · 34 entities

episode page audio

Asserted relationships

→ references Ryan Greenblatt person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://lesswrong.com/users/ryan_greenblatt
→ references Common Ground Between Ai 2027 And website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/common-ground-between-ai-2027-and
→ references Bullshit Jobs book

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://simonandschuster.com/books/Bullshit-Jobs/David-Graeber/9781501143335
→ discusses Technology company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Technology
→ references Elon Musk person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://tesla.com/elon-musk
→ references cyber.fund company

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://cyber.fund/
→ references Research company

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://deepmind.google/research/alphago
→ references Arc Agi person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3
→ references Overview website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://claude.com/product/overview
→ references Data Center person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/h100
→ references ~Hinton website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://cs.toronto.edu/~hinton
→ references redwoodresearch.org website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://redwoodresearch.org/
→ references Scenario Scrutiny For Ai Policy person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://blog.aifutures.org/p/scenario-scrutiny-for-ai-policy
→ references Hugging Face Incident person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://redwoodresearch.org/research/hugging-face-incident
→ references Hugging Face Incident And The Road Ahead website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead
→ references Ai As Normal Technology person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-normal-technology

Entities found in this episode

persons 14

mentioned Ryan Greenblatt person

0.90

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://lesswrong.com/users/ryan_greenblatt
references Ryan Greenblatt person

0.77

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://lesswrong.com/users/ryan_greenblatt
mentioned Elon Musk person

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://tesla.com/elon-musk
mentioned Arc Agi person

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3
mentioned Data Center person

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/h100
mentioned Scenario Scrutiny For Ai Policy person

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://blog.aifutures.org/p/scenario-scrutiny-for-ai-policy
mentioned Hugging Face Incident person

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://redwoodresearch.org/research/hugging-face-incident
mentioned Ai As Normal Technology person

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-normal-technology
references Elon Musk person

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://tesla.com/elon-musk
references Arc Agi person

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3
references Data Center person

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/h100
references Scenario Scrutiny For Ai Policy person

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://blog.aifutures.org/p/scenario-scrutiny-for-ai-policy
references Hugging Face Incident person

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://redwoodresearch.org/research/hugging-face-incident
references Ai As Normal Technology person

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-normal-technology

websites 10

mentioned Common Ground Between Ai 2027 And website

0.90

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/common-ground-between-ai-2027-and
references Common Ground Between Ai 2027 And website

0.77

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/common-ground-between-ai-2027-and
mentioned Overview website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://claude.com/product/overview
mentioned ~Hinton website

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evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://cs.toronto.edu/~hinton
mentioned redwoodresearch.org website

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://redwoodresearch.org/
mentioned Hugging Face Incident And The Road Ahead website

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead
references Overview website

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://claude.com/product/overview
references ~Hinton website

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://cs.toronto.edu/~hinton
references redwoodresearch.org website

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://redwoodresearch.org/
references Hugging Face Incident And The Road Ahead website

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead

companys 6

mentioned Technology company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Technology
mentioned cyber.fund company

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://cyber.fund/
mentioned Research company

0.45

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://deepmind.google/research/alphago
discusses Technology company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Technology
references cyber.fund company

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://cyber.fund/
references Research company

0.38

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://deepmind.google/research/alphago

books 2

mentioned Bullshit Jobs book

0.90

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://simonandschuster.com/books/Bullshit-Jobs/David-Graeber/9781501143335
references Bullshit Jobs book

0.77

evidence rules-v4
Link in episode "AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen": https://simonandschuster.com/books/Bullshit-Jobs/David-Graeber/9781501143335

podcasts 1

mentioned Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST podcast

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evidence rules-v4
Feed title: Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

concepts 1

mentioned Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen concept

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evidence rules-v4
AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen

Episode description as stored

Could slowing AI development make superintelligence safer? Daniel Kokotajlo and Thomas Larsen of the AI Futures Project join Tim Scarfe to examine AI 2040: Plan A, a proposal to buy time before AI exceeds human control. SPONSOR: --- Cyber Fund built the Monastery to help founders ship products that were impossible a year ago. Apply now: https://cyber.fund --- After revisiting AI 2027 and the limits of forecasting, they ask what happens when AI can automate research and sustain an economy without human workers. Tim challenges the case for general models and asks whether intelligence alone explains power. Plan A proposes an initial pause to build safety infrastructure, then cautious development up to the strongest AI that can still be reliably controlled. The discussion tests the distinction between control and alignment, the case for public AI research, and whether the US and China could enforce a slowdown. It ends with the evidence that would change their forecasts. --- TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 AI 2040: a slower route to superintelligence 00:01:34 Sponsor: Cyber Fund 00:02:12 From OpenAI to AI 2027 00:06:58 Forecasts, war games and self-fulfilling prophecies 00:17:44 Why AI sceptics are changing their minds 00:23:04 When AI can replace its own researchers 00:28:45 Could an AI economy grow without human workers? 00:37:32 One general model or a society of specialists? 00:47:43 Brains, machines and collective intelligence 00:56:12 Plan A: buy time at the controllable frontier 01:00:02 Why control buys time but cannot replace alignment 01:06:36 Why AI research should be public 01:10:32 Can the US and China enforce an AI slowdown? 01:19:04 Why AI policy debates miss the technology 01:21:56 Is AI normal technology? The remaining disagreement Many thanks to James Wilken-Smith for helping with show research. --- REFERENCES: other: [00:00:01] AI 2040: Plan A https://ai-2040.com/ [00:03:27] AI 2027 https://ai-2027.com/ [00:13:47] Scenario Scrutiny for AI Policy https://blog.aifutures.org/p/scenario-scrutiny-for-ai-policy [00:33:11] The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic [01:00:40] Brief independent investigation of agents' behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incident https://www.redwoodresearch.org/research/hugging-face-incident [01:09:21] The Hugging Face incident and the road ahead https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead/ [01:22:01] AI as Normal Technology https://www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-normal-technology [01:22:51] Common Ground between AI 2027 & AI as Normal Technology https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/common-ground-between-ai-2027-and person: [00:19:43] Geoffrey Hinton https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/ [00:20:07] Ryan Greenblatt https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ryan_greenblatt [00:26:06] Elon Musk https://www.tesla.com/elon-musk tool: [00:21:46] ARC-AGI-3 https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3 [00:21:53] AlphaGo and Move 37 https://deepmind.google/research/alphago/ [00:39:41] Claude https://claude.com/product/overview [00:39:58] NVIDIA H100 GPU https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/h100/ paper: [00:24:42] Training AI Scientists to Replicate Research https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13331v1 [01:27:19] Validity of the single processor approach to achieving large scale computing capabilities https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~18742/papers/Amdahl1967.pdf book: [00:28:52] Bullshit Jobs: A Theory https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bullshit-Jobs/David-Graeber/9781501143335 organization: [01:05:09] Redwood Research https://www.redwoodresearch.org/ --- RESCRIPT: https://app.rescript.info/public/share/33d1a58fa8f307ae7dfd504d4fdaa9d5