Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting

2015-12-21 · 60 min · episode 504 · 20 entities

episode page audio

Asserted relationships

→ appeared on EconTalk podcast

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evidence rules-v4
Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting
→ references Superforecasting book

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evidence rules-v5
the near future? Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities
→ hosted by Russ Roberts person

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Russ Roberts
→ hosted by Library of Economics and Liberty person

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Library of Economics and Liberty
→ discusses Society & Culture concept

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Feed category: Society & Culture
→ discusses Education concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Education
→ discusses Science concept

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Feed category: Science
→ discusses Philosophy company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Philosophy
→ discusses Social Sciences concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Social Sciences
→ discusses Courses website

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Feed category: Courses

Entities found in this episode

concepts 8

mentioned Society & Culture concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Society & Culture
mentioned Education concept

0.50 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Education
mentioned Science concept

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Science
mentioned Social Sciences concept

0.50 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Social Sciences
discusses Society & Culture concept

0.40 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Society & Culture
discusses Education concept

0.40 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Education
discusses Science concept

0.40 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Science
discusses Social Sciences concept

0.40 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Social Sciences

persons 5

mentioned Russ Roberts person

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Russ Roberts
mentioned Library of Economics and Liberty person

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Library of Economics and Liberty
mentioned Philip Tetlock person

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evidence rules-v4
Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting
hosted by Russ Roberts person

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Russ Roberts
hosted by Library of Economics and Liberty person

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evidence rules-v4
Feed author/publisher: Library of Economics and Liberty

books 2

mentioned Superforecasting book

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evidence rules-v5
the near future? Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities
references Superforecasting book

0.62 · ×2

evidence rules-v5
the near future? Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities

companys 2

mentioned Philosophy company

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Philosophy
discusses Philosophy company

0.40 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Philosophy

websites 2

mentioned Courses website

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evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Courses
discusses Courses website

0.40 · ×4

evidence rules-v4
Feed category: Courses

podcasts 1

appeared on EconTalk podcast

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evidence rules-v4
Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting

Episode description as stored

Can you predict the future? Or at least gauge the probability of political or economic events in the near future? Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful amateurs. Tetlock finds that teams of amateurs trained in gathering information and thinking about it systematically outperformed experts in assigning probabilities of various events in a competition organized by IARPA, research agency under the Director of National Intelligence. In this conversation, Tetlock discusses the meaning, reliability, and usefulness of trying to assign probabilities to one-time events.