#94 Ex-BlackRock Risk Analyst Explains Why Risk Models Lie | Joe Hegener
2026-09-29 · 56 min · episode 94 · 11 entities
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Feed author/publisher: David Guttman
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Link in episode "#94 Ex-BlackRock Risk Analyst Explains Why Risk Models Lie | Joe Hegener": https://youtube.com/@RealDaveGuttman
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#94 Ex-BlackRock Risk Analyst Explains Why Risk Models Lie | Joe Hegener
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Link in episode "#94 Ex-BlackRock Risk Analyst Explains Why Risk Models Lie | Joe Hegener": https://youtube.com/@RealDaveGuttman
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Link in episode "#94 Ex-BlackRock Risk Analyst Explains Why Risk Models Lie | Joe Hegener": https://youtube.com/@RealDaveGuttman
Episode description as stored
I asked Joe Hegner, a PIMCO alum who now runs his own hedge fund, what the pension funds and central banks he advised get wrong, and his answer was not what I expected. He explains how the same portfolio can look safe or dangerous depending on who sets the assumptions, and why the downside he thinks is least likely gets extra weight in his own fund. We also get into the helicopter over Athens that tracked down Greek tax dodgers by their swimming pools, and why he doubts the EU lasts another decade. The moment that stuck with me was his dad, a former Wall Street CEO, telling him right out of college that he knew nothing and needed 10 years first.
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Connect with Joe Hegner
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Timestamps
00:00 - Intro to the show
01:31 - From philosophy classes to economics
03:16 - Getting cut from JV lacrosse
06:20 - His dad's early Wall Street exit
10:30 - Is college still worth the money
11:10 - AI tutors at the Alpha School
16:40 - Why he stopped trusting risk numbers
22:17 - Why he chose to run a hedge fund
23:21 - His dad's ten-year rule
24:59 - Michael Saylor and financial engineering
26:34 - Blockchain versus crypto as an investment
29:06 - Rising long bond yields and debt
33:18 - The swimming pool tax hunt
37:01 - Could the EU break apart
40:27 - Where he'd go if things break
41:06 - Learning my wife is not my mom
44:36 - A coal shoveler turned company CFO
48:14 - Longevity, faith and falling birth rates
50:52 - What he wants his kids to say
54:43 - Where to connect with Joe
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