The Bad "Bet"
2026-05-15 · 89 min · 6 entities
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evidence rules-v5
Feed category: Business
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evidence rules-v5
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evidence rules-v5
Feed category: True Crime
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companys 4
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evidence rules-v5
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evidence rules-v5
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evidence rules-v5
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evidence rules-v5
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podcasts 2
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evidence rules-v5
Feed category: True Crime
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evidence rules-v5
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Episode description as stored
Or the very good bet, depending on how you think about it. In this episode, we start by discussing the strange, fast-moving world of prediction markets — platforms where you can bet real money on whether a head of state gets removed from power, whether a country gets invaded, whether the Fed raises rates — and where the prices themselves are supposed to be the point, a real-time probability signal generated by the crowd. Then we get to the case that just blew a very large hole in that theory: a Polymarket account called "Burdensome-Mix" that turned $33,000 into $409,881 in about a week, betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — and the active-duty Green Beret who allegedly made those trades while participating in the raid that made them pay out.
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