World Model · podcast knowledge graph

285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

2024-08-12 · 71 min · episode 285 · 9 entities

episode page audio

Asserted relationships

  • → references On the Edge book
    0.65 · ×2
    evidence rules-v5
    prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , Silver examines a set of traits characterizing
  • → hosted by Sean Carroll person
    0.55 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Sean Carroll
  • → discusses Science concept
    0.40 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Science
  • → discusses Physics website
    0.40 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Physics

Entities found in this episode

concepts 3

books 2

  • mentioned On the Edge book
    0.76 · ×2
    evidence rules-v5
    prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , Silver examines a set of traits characterizing
  • references On the Edge book
    0.65 · ×2
    evidence rules-v5
    prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , Silver examines a set of traits characterizing

persons 2

  • mentioned Sean Carroll person
    0.70 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Sean Carroll
  • hosted by Sean Carroll person
    0.55 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed author/publisher: Sean Carroll

websites 2

  • mentioned Physics website
    0.50 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Physics
  • discusses Physics website
    0.40 · ×4
    evidence rules-v4
    Feed category: Physics
Episode description as stored
Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book  On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything , Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks. S upport Mindscape on  Patreon . Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/ Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the  FiveThirtyEight  political polling analysis site. His first book,  The Signal and the Noise , was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the  Risky Business podcast . Substack Wikipedia Amazon author page